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And then what other books come to mind that have had maybe a disproportionate impact on your thinking or that youve simply gifted a lot or recommended much to other people? [01:07:52][3.2], Dan Nathan: [01:07:53] Yeah listen, I kind of think that the Fed is probably done a big part of what they needed to do to tamp down inflation. So a lot of stuff out there that could probably be worked on. Brian Armstrong: Yeah, yeah. Now, I just do blog posts. And its not really We have an existence proof of this, if you will, because we know that some animals in nature can regenerate, like a salamander. DeFi has been a really big use case as well. What advice would you give to this person, or what might you say to them? Jonathan Haidts book about The Coddling of the American Mind, and all these things that kind of started on college campuses. And if zero people interacted with it, if, if one person was like, Oh, cool, and hes able to fusion, its an equally impressive and compelling product. There should probably be a stripe atlas for crypto in the sense that a lot of people are And some people are doing this, theyre trying to make it easier for people to create a company. But I think just that space stepping back, reading a bunch on a bunch of different things, kind of forming my perspective and getting out of the day to day fray was really good. With Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) non-paying customers are taken into account. Id sort of loosely read a few things here and there about this, but I never really took it that seriously. And by the way, its not to say that crypto its all future potential value. And I always tell people, imagine if the early hosts on Airbnb or the early drivers in Uber had gotten a chance to participate in the network that they helped create. Well I keep thinking By the way, these are not, I dont want to take credit for these. So then heres another one while were riffing here a little bit. Some of that by the way is trading. So my question is, you might see some M&A allowed. Brian Armstrong: Yeah, well, I guess there was one we said earlier, which was action produces information. Its like a new tequila with a celebrity or whatever. And everything just went faster. Theyre just in a really crowded. Therefore, youre willing to pay more for insurance that youre going to be able to safely be able to get public in 24 or 25 or get to a point of profitability and eliminate financing risk. They didnt run out of money. [00:11:26][16.0], Packy McCormick: [00:11:28] Correlations pretty much 1 to 1. [00:33:54][51.8], Dan Nathan: [00:33:54] That makes sense. So were seeing a lot of really good focus now happening on scalability of the blockchain. [00:15:59][73.2], Dan Nathan: [00:15:59] Yeah, and thats the other thing that I think is really interesting just how the sentiment has kind of shifted. For the sake of clarity, media outlets are permitted to use photos of Tim Ferriss from the media room on tim.blog or (obviously) license photos of Tim Ferriss from Getty Images, etc. Now, this is a very tangible company. Twitter memes from 2020 saying New Yorks dead IRL is dead. The only way to calm things down was to see bubbles burst. There should probably be jobs in marketplaces all based around crypto kind of eBay for crypto, Elance for crypto, Amazon for crypto, all that stuff. So a lot of like crazy macro things happening that many of us are really left scratching our heads because we stare at the stock market all day long. So I wrote probably two or three or four drafts of this where I just discarded it and tried to write it over again. People are going to give you that latitude. Wed want to kind of make it simple for people to transact regardless of where the supply aggregated from. [00:14:21][67.4], Dan Nathan: [00:14:22] All right. They dont always succeed, but at least theyre trying. EIGHTH. And if you want to go scare yourself, you can go read that. Every time you opened the app, it would say Syncing, and it would have to sync for three, four minutes or whatever to catch up with the latest blockchain blocks. And if you need additional capital and I assume Instacart would probably need additional capital, even post IPO because of what theyre talking now is doing a small or no primary and focused mostly on the secondary that if you need more capital, the capital is almost always going to be cheaper in the public markets. And some kind of light bulb This was probably the second or third person who had said something like this. Ive many questions and maybe well get to later related to being a private person, but also inviting a film crew to follow you around, especially in many of those private contexts. And I thought he did a really good job of just looking back at history and teasing apart some of these patterns. But, you know, Square was the first company out during the last downturn that wasnt a perfect company either. Youre probably going to see more redemptions if something massively doesnt change over the next two quarters. Welcome back. Does this ring a bell for you? I mean, the biggest one I think in my mind is regulatory clarity. And I think just the normal human condition, you can only adjust so much before you even want to overcorrect. I would wake up or in the middle of the night with these stress dreams, or just ruminate on these things, its not great. All right. I think that that could be a nice community that comes together. But I think for the theory overall, it doesnt necessarily make it faster or you know, thats not the point of this one. Theyre not just like, I dont know, whatever Elon will do. So the team there is doing really awesome stuff around trying to make scientific research more like open source software, like GitHub or something. Their latest funding was raised on Aug 31, 2021 from a Series H round.Databricks is funded by 42 investors. In fact, I think you put out a great framework a while back about imagining what is really the worst thing thats going to happen, and could you actually live with that, right? that offers or promotes your or anothers products or services. I mean, I think one of the real questions and risks kind of even at the earlier stage was just like what the capital supply chain looks like, like whats going to happen even if you invest in this great company at the seed round right now, What happens if markets fall apart and even if its doing well, it cant raise an A or the company that you invested in that that and they cant raise a B in 9 to 12 months. Over 60% of marketers measure the success of their content marketing strategy through sales. The New York Stock Exchange is really kind of funny to see a bunch of like tech founders, VCs wandering around the New York Stock Exchange, wondering, will I ever get here? Enter the email address you signed up with and we'll email you a reset link. How would you make the case with data or anticipated shifts that havent yet happened? Tim Ferriss: So lets rewind for a moment, and then well go back and forth chronologically, because I like the Memento style of conversation. In startups, there is something called the startup hype cycle. I mean, particularly in a space where growth and usage and all of that is so tied to price and there is so much speculation, I think even more than in a traditional startup where the dollar amount is an attached to the project itself, youd expect it to kind of go to one where people just get less excited. Ive actually, for the first time ever, I think, not boring the media companys largest holdings right now, or U.S. Treasuries and so Im becoming a Bond guy now. And so one of the reasons I want to go back to market share for a second and why this data is important is that Apple is like number five in smartphone market share in China. I think weve got it dialed. All the products that weve made are just like, lets make it more trusted, lets make it easier to use for the average person. Its just like a really compelling app and something that Im going to use. [00:43:26][83.3], Rick Heitzmann: [00:43:26] And we looked at a lot of different assets. And then if we go into a raging bull market, itll go back to 700 where a top down at. Thats how were gonna Now, heres the interesting thing. Hes one guy. Give us a sense of where you are on it right now and just takeaways from the merge. I figured out how to use an ATM, got a local cell phone. And thats whats true of 99% of people, they see some article, whatever, theres a million things that theyre thinking about, they actually dont care that much about whatever the thing is that feels so existential and awful to you. It takes a long time to publish a paper. Were not taking out black swans. And conversely, the manic bulls on, lets just say NFT and crypto Twitter, what are they missing about the landscape, or should they pay more attention to? It was the second book in a stack of three. Although they wouldnt be valued any higher in the private markets, it would just be less transparent to them. So we can do that for institutions in retail really well. Id certainly slow down the pace of investing. Brian Armstrong: But you can imagine mRNA is now something that we have huge proof point with with the COVID vaccines, and I think thats a very interesting delivery mechanism people have looked at. And I dont know, my message to people This is part of why I created the documentary as well, COIN, is I wanted to show people if you want to try to impact the world, I think one of the best ways to do it is to build a company thats based around science and technology. So yeah, greatest risk is not taking one. Many Git commands accept both tag and branch names, so creating this branch may cause unexpected behavior. [01:07:38][5.1], Dan Nathan: [01:07:39] Yeah, well, I mean, lets lets take those out. No, lets do it. Management: Leading & Collaborating in a Competitive World PDF Management: Leading & Collaborating in a Competitive World by by Thomas S Bateman, Scott A Snell, Robert Konopaske This Management: Leading & Collaborating in a Competitive World book is not really ordinary book, you have it then the world is in your hands. So thank you for answering. How does that affect your psyche about deploying capital and how youre thinking about what is the next great company that you want to invest in and Not Boring? A lot of them are kind of waiting now to release the product when the time is right to launch a token, if they have a token coming when the times right. One of which being the JPG parallels with contemporary art, I think just provide a nice on-ramp for a lot of people who would otherwise be intimidated by blockchain technologies and so on to become part of the ecosystem. Thats kind of our brand. Thus, the author aims to test the applicability of Graham's and Lynch's formulation on shares traded on the Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX) by screening stocks that meet the various sets of Graham's and Lynch's criteria and then measuring the performance of the portfolios over the years from 2010 to 2014. This Management: Leading & Collaborating in a Competitive World having great arrangement in word and layout, so you will not really feel uninterested in reading. The author discovered that investors who used the combined criteria of Lynch earned positive risk-adjusted returns, of 28.81 percent per year in 2010-2012 and 27.33 percent per year in 2012-2014. I need to try something crazy, and just get adventure in my life. Average Revenue Per User is particularly suitable for SaaS companies or internet businesses. Academia.edu no longer supports Internet Explorer. The main thing Ive been thinking about a lot is Ray Dalios recent book, Principles for a Changing World Order. Newlimit.com, so easy to remember. All the black swans are or. And I cant remember how I chose Buenos Aires, but that was intended to be my first destination of many, one per month, roughly. And there were some people inside the company who were like, do not share this under any circumstances, this will be a terrible thing for the company. And someone will probably try to hack into it and its like, youve got to have a lot of money for that. So I didnt immediately get to the next step was maybe Ill start that company. And so I basically went out and made a statement supporting BLM as many companies did at that time. Its a stylistic choice by boards and CEOs everywhere. Below are four ways that businesses have used segmenting to improve their email response rates and, ultimately, sales. Im just curious, would you prefer to see this company privately in the hands of, lets say, Elon Musk and whoever he brings in to kind of retool the thing and not have to kind of see the day to day, you know what I mean? But I somehow got it backwards and was like, You know what? And it was like a boulder we were chasing downhill. Like like were. And yeah, theres a lot of funny stories in crypto where somebody had something on a thumb drive or whatever, and then they realized, I probably shouldnt just be carrying this around in my backpack, just walking around with $40 million in my backpack every day, if it happens to get stolen, its not good.. Theyre basically writing it. [00:42:02][56.4], Dan Nathan: [00:42:02] It was awesome. Is this largely in Web three? And so, yeah, it does not surprise me that I think crypto correlation kind of close to one. What advice would you give to someone who is in a company that is beginning to scale and theyre starting to get hit with the hundredth, then a thousand people, or maybe its just 10 opportunistic journalists who are really just smashing the rock against the head of this poor startup because it gets a lot of clicks. You know, before the paternity leave, I think just in the lead up to having a kid and having a kid who was at the time 22 months old and writing a lot and getting dunked on on the Internet for the first time and being in the middle of a bear market. [00:12:19][47.9], Dan Nathan: [00:12:20] Quickly though, on the eth merge, its been a few weeks now you and I talked about I think in May the bull case for ETH back then was that the merge was going to happen, it was going to be this, that and the other, right? Tim Ferriss: the Coinbase team mascot uniform. People were publishing their papers on Twitter instead of going through a two-year journal process that had all these paywalls and stuff like that. So people earning yield on their assets with things like staking, its people doing commerce with crypto, its people buying, selling, minting NFTs. And I had never been to South America and I knew a little bit of Spanish from high school, but I was not very fluent at all. What context or direction did you give your tutor? And if they were the ones who put out the smart contract for that, and thats where the customers are listing it, so be it. Names like Lyft, okay, this is a company that the gap is still losing money and theyre really focused. I dont think theres anything that you would like really structurally change with the new technology and that needs to be fixed and consolidated in some way. Because what is covered quite extensively in the doc and certainly was covered even more extensively in the news, was your decision not that long ago to offer generous severance packages to people who disagreed with your statements about Coinbase as a mission-driven company that provides a refuge of sorts. [01:10:05][0.0], Learn more about how Current improves its members lives at current.com/okay, Check out Masterworks, the worlds premier art investing platform masterworks.art/okaycomputer, about managing paternity leave after the birth of his second child (1:49), the volatile emotions fueling public markets (5:31), finding proper valuations for startups (7:55), Ethereums price slump after The Merge (12:44), Bitcoins struggles to prove its value (14:15), Elon Musks stunning announcement that he will buy Twitter after all (18:41), why Packy thinks the most exciting companies right now are in the private markets (27:17), and if big tech companies like Meta and Amazon have a path to get out of their slump (29:42). And so I decided, you know what? Kind of like that was the last. Actually I did an interview with Kevin, I think right around that time. So there might be a bias there, but if you wanted to make the case to the skeptics that actually, let me show you a couple of slides, let me show you a couple of historical examples, this is why I can make the case that its early. But its not just his opinion, hes trying to base it on facts of history. But I had to go find a bank partner that would allow us to integrate with the ACH network in the US, and convince them what our anti-money laundering policy was. So if youre a company, though, again, you go public to raise capital. I mean, this is another project. Following a bumpy launch week that saw frequent server trouble and bloated player queues, Blizzard has announced that over 25 million Overwatch 2 players have logged on in its first 10 days. Well, that basically there was a lot of COVID happened, people were at home, they probably had less of a sense of belonging and cohesion as, hey, were all one company, were one group of people, were all trying to do good stuff in the world. 3. And so NewLimit is basically going to try to build a platform that tests a lot of different transcription factors with different cell types and uses machine learning to do that in a virtuous cycle. I dug it. But one of the key moments appeared to be the decision to put a Buy Bitcoin button on Coinbase. A lot of people out in the market with this right now, both the LPs as well as companies of can you provide that insurance as convertible debt. I remember you actually came on, I think, fast money that night. And thats the moment we had product market fit. You can download the paper by clicking the button above. Lets talk a little bit about this, because right now I think were all sick of a lot of these stocks that are down 50, 60, 70, 80%. [00:25:26][89.1], Packy McCormick: [00:25:26] What are you excited about in the private markets right now? I found finally a room to rent. Particularly when things were falling apart, I was like, Is this whole portfolio going to zero? A bunch of companies that came out via SPAC, theyre going to be trading at cash. But you dont feel bad if your house doesnt catch on fire and you have fire insurance, you feel pretty happy, especially when you get to a good outcome. You make it very quickly. And so once you start to think of it like that, it really changes your perspective. I think theres ways that he can obviously make the product better. And at the time, you know, and there was a lot of people waving that flag. And there was a lot of things going on last year that kind of with interest rates as low as they were. And the really volatile unpredictability of some of those situations becomes a little realer to each person who experiences it. And remember, the greatest risk is not taking one. So just in the last five years or so, several labs have shown that basically, you dont want to change the cell state. You and I talk privately. Tim Ferriss: Now, my apologies in advance if this is already something you guys have launched, but if not, do you have plans to provide, I suppose, the equivalent of custody for NFTs as opposed to cryptocurrency? Rick Heitizmann from FirstMark after the break. Now, on the other hand, I do think in general, startups probably focus too much on On the other hand, youre just too much focused on competitors. WHAT YOURE WELCOME TO DO: You are welcome to share the below transcript (up to 500 words but not more) in media articles (e.g., The New York Times, LA Times, The Guardian), on your personal website, in a non-commercial article or blog post (e.g., Medium), and/or on a personal social media account for non-commercial purposes, provided that you include attribution to The Tim Ferriss Show and link back to the tim.blog/podcast URL. In April 2021, Coinbase listed publicly on NASDAQ as COIN. Everything else theyre using as far as services, theyre using super apps like WeChat and everything like that. And the fundamental underlying technology is something thats inherently more global and can be more efficient and fair and free. Connecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas, Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information, news and insight around the world. So on the continuum, to your question of public market securities, if you make a bad decision thats fixable in a couple of seconds in the private markets, it takes years to correct that decision and therefore, people are waiting longer before dipping into that illiquid. Would somebody pay $10 billion for a Lyft? Brian Armstrong: Okay. What are the essential amino acids? Im just saying like that. Its actually easy way to sound smart, but its hard to do difficult things. Like, this is really good feedback. And, you know, I mean, come on, man. So, you know, now theres a lot less certainty of whos going out. Actually, though, I mean that sincerely, because is there a chance that the thing gets pushed out, that theres maybe this is just a delaying tactic one way or another? WHAT IS NOT ALLOWED: No one is authorized to copy any portion of the podcast content or use Tim Ferriss name, image or likeness for any commercial purpose or use, including without limitation inclusion in any books, e-books, book summaries or synopses, or on a commercial website or social media site (e.g., Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, etc.) Were not related to this. Be safe out there. So theres many times where youre sitting around and youre like, All right, well what if this happens? Uber and Lyft in the unit get no one likes these business models, but this is like a $4 billion enterprise company value. So my guess is therell be some distressed sales. Let me shift gears and ask you about self-improvement. We know that the main page is going away. There is a GitHub that Jameson Lopp maintains on all the physical security threats that have happened with Bitcoin. And if bitcoin isnt accepted everywhere in use by everyone, same kind of things. They thought they had plenty of cash. [00:11:31][2.1], Packy McCormick: [00:11:31] Well, yeah. I think its great when people go through it, and even when it feels like shit, Im like, Congratulations, youve just made it to the next level.. The other major inflection point that I focus on is scalability of the blockchains. And Im not asking you to bare your soul and tell me about all the things that have hurt your feelings. Its not going to be I dont think thats likely, but I think just the fact that its possible, it means that you need to have some kind of escape hatch, if you will, or lifeboat. 3.1. So were getting closer and closer to having human readable names everywhere with And ENS is a really big piece of that. Theres folks who have been there for a long time, maybe have gone through a bunch of life events who are ready for the pot at the end of the rainbow. So the most valuable companies in the world are when we cross-pollinate a true scientific innovation with someone who can go commercialize it. I dont remember what timeframe you were down there, but I think I read your book maybe a couple years after that or something. Microsoft is quietly building a mobile Xbox store that will rely on Activision and King games. That was our best stuff. I mean, this could be like a kind of gift for traders so interested to kind of track that one. Things were flat. But as you said, there was very little sense of optimism. And so I think well see that happen with crypto too. Its just I, I like that one now. And what all that has to say is that its just not a good environment for unprofitable and a lot of those companies or kind of marginally profitable its just investors are shooting first, asking questions later and the last thing you want to do is like if youre a private company, your stock is held by good hands for all the purposes. All right. You can store NFTs there. So the good news is were starting to see that. And I think the thing that was exciting about it was he just had this kind of curiosity for life and a boundless energy to go try different things and tinker around and experiment. Ten years ago, it was people from people from the New York ecosystem, founders that we know, founders in the portfolio, co-investors, friends. People, investors kept on pushing themselves out the risk spectrum right out. Its kind of backed one to one by US dollar, and theres decentralized stablecoins like DAI, but itd be nice to have a stable coin or a flat coin thats actually linked to purchasing power. And it might not be as big of a pot as they thought. So then therell be a double off the lows. Because I think this is related or at least overlapping in some respects. Brian Armstrong: I was trying to think of what our comms team would think if I was like, Id really love to work at this other crypto company. What the hell? Ill take the blame if it is, but I like to ask this one. Okay. But it is just very funny to see the emotions from day to day swing wildly. And so I try, Its never as good as it seems, never as bad as it seems, in crypto. Numerous tests have been conducted in the United States and other countries, but not yet in Indonesia. And it almost became this thing where who can make the exec team squirm the most on stage with these very difficult questions. Abstract: Set in the autumn of 2005, this case recounts the remarkable performance record of Value Trust, a mutual fund managed by William H." Bill" Miller III at Legg Mason, Inc. Respond to your reviews. He put a lot of it online. The lowest-paid workers at Walmart make less than $19,000 a year, while the highest-paid workers earn over $51,000. So we dont hold the keys, the customer holds the keys. And internally, people started to think, actually, were not all on the same team. And its like, well, for me to have money, you have to take it from somebody else. This is a process I think I want to write on just kind of the different innovation cycles when people need to be involved to actually make the product successful. I mean, we were with our friend the other night and were talking about in the summer of 2020 how the sovereigns poured more money into SoftBank. To me, those are The most promising solutions we have that are using technology, right? Cool. And what I saw was, I think what happens when you have a once great superpower, like Argentina, I think was the number-eighth largest economy in the world or something in 1900. You cant trust anything that you read on the internet, its full of scams and people writing crazy things on their blogs. Tim Ferriss: And sometimes in the course of doing research, I find a gingerbread trail that leads me to the story, before the story, before the story, and this may be a dead end, but Im going to give it a shot.

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